03/10/2025–Oil investors are predominantly holding long positions, anticipating potential gains despite current market challenges. Brent crude is trading about $7 below its fair value, with technical indicators suggesting oversold conditions, indicating a possible price rebound. The market sees a drop in Iranian supply as the only bullish catalyst for prices, which we do not anticipate. However, further depreciation in the US dollar could stabilize and potentially boost oil prices.
The global aluminum market faces more than 600 kmt deficit in 2025 as supply growth slows, particularly with China nearing its production cap. Supply growth is expected to drop to 1.3% yoy, while demand grows by 2%, tightening the market. Short-term deficits will be managed by stock draws and restarting idled capacities, with 1 mmt/a expected to restart in the US and Europe. Despite falling alumina prices, aluminum prices are projected to rise to $2,850/mt by late 2025 to incentivize necessary restarts.
This price increase is essential to address the supply gap, as lower costs alone won’t resolve the deficits. The US imposed significant tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, leading to trade retaliation, particularly affecting agricultural products. China responded with import suspensions and additional tariffs on key US agricultural exports like soybeans and pork. Canada imposed a
03/03/2025—Global commodity market open interest value stabilizes after a strong start to 2025, despite a slight week-over- week decline. Inflows into energy and precious metals were offset by the weaknesses in agricultural and environmental markets. Significant outflows in agriculture, driven by profit-taking, highlight investor caution amid geopolitical uncertainties, such as US tariffs and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks. Natural gas markets remained stable, anticipating future price pressures from production increases. Precious metals saw increased interest, primarily in gold, yet non-commercial investors reduced net long positions, reflecting caution. Base metals and environmental markets faced declines, with copper affected by weak Chinese demand and environmental markets experiencing negative momentum signals.
Oil markets are facing heightened demand-supply uncertainties, with global demand rising by 1.6 mbd YoY in February. Despite this growth, several factors contribute to market volatility. The discovery of a new coronavirus strain in China has raised concerns about potential disruptions, leading to a decline in oil prices. Geopolitical tensions add complexity, with Kurdish crude exports and stranded Russian tankers off China and India further clouding supply chains. Additionally, the prospect of US tariffs on Canada and Mexico has dampened demand outlooks.
The copper market is tightening in 2H25 due to limited supply growth and strong global demand. Mine supply growth slows to 1% in 2025, with negative spot treatment charges supporting the supply backdrop. Chinese demand growth slows to 2.5% year over-year, but policy adjustments may offset tariff impacts. Global demand is expected to recover to 3.4% in 2025, though tariff uncertainties remain a risk. Copper prices may dip to $9,000/mt, presenting buying opportunities before a potential bullish move to $10,400/mt later in 2025.
02/21/2025—The expiration of the JCPOA in October 2025 prompts potential negotiations between the US and Iran. Gulf economic stability necessitates reduced support for aggressive US policies, as GCC countries engage with Iran. US inflation may affect policy priorities. Iranian crude production is expected to remain steady at 3.1 mbd in 2025, unchanged from 2024. (Oil Markets Weekly, Feb 20th). The global natural gas/LNG market is tight with storage near historical lows. NWE storage is at ~33% due to increased demand and poor wind conditions boosting gas-fired power generation by 80% year-on-year. A potential Russia/Ukraine ceasefire could impact Russian pipeline gas, while lifting restrictions on Russian LNG could add 18 Bcm/ year from Arctic LNG 2. Upcoming European regulations may introduce “flexible” storage rules with “dynamic targets” beyond 2025, offering limited immediate relief (European Natural Gas, Feb 20th).
The agricultural markets are experiencing significant volatility and shifts. The sugar market is leading with substantial price increases after the Dubai Sugar conference, driven by supply concerns and technical trading signals. Wheat markets are also rising due to weather-related threats, while coffee prices hit historical highs. Currency fluctuations, with the Brazilian real appreciating and the US dollar weakening, are influencing these markets. The potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire could impact wheat exports, while global supply downgrades in sugar are anticipated. Overall, these dynamics suggest a volatile period ahead, with key opportunities in sugar, wheat, and palm oil markets through 2025 (Agricultural Markets Update, Feb 16th).
President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all US steel and aluminum imports, set to begin on March 12th, affecting imports from all countries. The US relies on imports for over 80% of its primary aluminum demand, with Canada supplying about 70% of unwrought aluminum imports. The tariff could add nearly 30 c/lb in duties, potentially raising the US Midwest premium (MWP) for aluminum from ~28 c/lb to 35-40 c/lb. While immediate effects may include a rise in the MWP, medium-term implications could be bearish for aluminum prices due to potential weaker US demand and/or increased domestic supply.
02/08/2025—Tariffs on Canadian oil won’t disrupt supply but will lower Western Canadian Select (WSC) prices. With limited immediate export alternatives, Canadian producers may bear 80% of the burden, while US refiners absorb 20% through reduced profit margins, potentially raising crude input costs by 2% and increasing US gasoline prices by about 4c/gallon. Historically, however, unfavorable WCS-WTI differentials have led Alberta to mandate production cuts (Oil Markets Weekly, Feb 2nd).
The potential increase in Russian pipeline gas to Europe, possibly linked to a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, is shifting from “if” to “when.” This aligns with Russia’s production needs, Europe’s high energy costs, and Ukraine’s economic interests. While uncertainty remains, particularly regarding where the US will position itself on this issue given that President Trump continues to encourage Europe to purchase more US oil and gas (Global Natural Gas, Feb 7th).
US agricultural exports vulnerable to retaliatory measures from trade partners. This has led to increased price volatility, particularly in grain markets, amid trade uncertainties and strong fundamentals. The impact on US agri markets hinges on the scope of retaliation, tariff magnitude, and currency fluctuations, with corn and soybeans most at risk, while wheat, sugar, and palm oil show strong fundamentals and less exposure to US trade tensions US tariffs on Canada, Mexico & China keep us near-term bearish on base metals, reinforce bullish gold view.
The impact on critical minerals remains uncertain and pending clarity on tariff rates for Canadian metal imports. LME base metals are likely to face downward pressure due to growth concerns, macroeconomic risks, and a strong USD, with prices potentially falling by 4-6%. While bearish sentiment from equities may initially weigh on gold, the disruptive nature of tariffs supports a medium-term bullish case , potentially accelerating the achievement of a $2,950/oz target if tariffs
persist.
