04/19/2026–In the currency markets, we are starting to bet against the US dollar again, returning to our long-term view that its value will eventually drop. However, because inflation remains high and energy prices are still volatile, we are being picky and focusing on trades that offer better interest rate returns. In emerging markets, we’ve shifted back to a more aggressive investment stance, specifically favoring regions like Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, while staying neutral on Asian currencies. We believe the fact that these emerging market currencies have held their ground so well over the last two months shows they are backed by strong economic foundations.

01/29/2026–We’re still betting against the US Dollar and leaning into “procyclical” currencies—basically the ones that do well when the global economy is growing—and high yielders. One big thing we’re seeing right now is “fiscal differentiation”, basically, the market is starting to judge countries again based on how they handle their budgets, and the U.S. deficit is finally starting to weigh on the dollar.

We’re also using specific currencies like the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as a “funder”—meaning we’re borrowing or selling it to fund other trades since the local Canadian data and oil prices make it a safe, stable pick for that. On the other hand, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) looks cheap right now, so we’re keeping it in our pocket as a potential hedge if things get rocky.