The Census Bureau’s 1Q26 Housing Vacancy Survey showed a rental market that continues to normalize from historically tight post-pandemic conditions, set against a for-sale market that remains supply-constrained in a manner without modern precedent. The two segments are moving in opposite directions, and the divergence is becoming more pronounced. The rental vacancy rate edged up …

Rental Vacancies Rise as For-Sale Market Remains Tight Read More »

The Conference Board consumer confidence index surprised to the upside in April, rising to 92.8 from an upwardly revised 92.2 in March. The improvement was led by a rebound in the expectations component, which rose 1.2 points after sliding 1.6 points the prior month. The survey’s gauge of current conditions edged down just 0.3 points in April but is up 5.1 …

Improving Labor Signal Lifts Confidence in April Read More »

The combined February and March housing starts report delivered a strong rebound in the single-family segment following a weaker than initially reported start to the year. Downward revisions to January confirmed that severe winter weather weighed on construction activity to a greater degree than last month’s release suggested, but single-family starts recovered 4.8% month-on-month in February and …

Strong March Starts Amid Challenges for Construction Read More »

Census Bureau residential vacancies and homeownership data released this week showed total occupied housing units rising by 1.66 million over the four quarters through 1Q26 — the firmest increase since 3Q24. The pickup is counterintuitive against a backdrop of slowing population growth, which should, all else equal, represent a headwind to housing demand. The explanation lies in …

US Housing Demand Defies Population Slowdown Read More »

There were two major developments at today’s FOMC meeting, each significant in its own right, and potentially related in ways that bear on the near-term policy trajectory. The first was Chairman Powell’s indication that he intends to remain on the Board as a governor after his chairmanship expires in mid-May. When asked near the end …

Powell to Remain on a Divided Committee Read More »

The FOMC delivered a widely anticipated 25bp cut today, lowering the target range to 3.5–3.75%. The meeting featured a three-way split in dissents—two hawkish and one dovish—perfectly mirroring consensus expectations. While the “dot plot” remained largely unchanged from September, the overarching message from the statement and Chair Powell’s press conference was clear: the era of …

The last of the insurance cuts Read More »

• Real GDP rose 4.3%q/q, saar in 3Q, the strongest increase in two years • Strong growth reflected a pickup in consumer spending as well as robust capex and government spending on defense • Core PCE inflation rose 2.9%q/q, saar; the GDP price index jumped 3.8% • October-November IP data show growth in manufacturing moderating • Further deterioration in Conference …

Tuesday Wrap-up Read More »

The simultaneous release of the November and partial October employment reports could have been a source of significant volatility, but the data ultimately failed to shift the labor market narrative established prior to the government shutdown. Private payrolls grew by 52,000 in October and 69,000 in November, hovering remarkably close to the three- and six-month …

But actually, everything is just about the same Read More »

Pending home sales—a reliable leading indicator for existing home turnover with a one-to-two-month lead time—surged 3.3% in November, catapulting the index to its highest level since February 2023. This print is particularly impressive given that average mortgage rates actually drifted 10bp higher during the month, and it follows a robust, upwardly revised 2.4% gain in …

Pending home sales climb higher amid rate relief Read More »

As we look toward next week’s December employment report, we must critically evaluate the distortions that defined the November unemployment rate. While the headline figure rose 12.5bp between September and November—seemingly providing clear evidence that unemployment was breaking out of its established mid-2024 range—our forensic analysis suggests this move was heavily polluted. We estimate that …

Caution on Nov unemployment increase Read More »