• Nonfarm payroll employment rose 151k overall and 140k private; private job gains are in line with trend but there were some other details in the report that were soft • The unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1% (4.14%) even while participation fell two-tenths of a percent • The workweek held at the cycle …
The minutes of the January FOMC meeting confirmed the message that Chair Powell gave at the January press conference and his subsequent Congressional testimony: that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates further — but also retains its easing bias. The minutes revealed that participants saw the “current high degree of uncertainty” as …
January FOMC minutes reinforce a continued pause Read More »
In our 2025 Outlook we highlighted how strong consumer balance sheets have been supporting spending. While real PCE growth surged over 4% in 2H24, we look for consumer spending in 1H25 to normalize to above 2% given the still solid labor market. Rising delinquencies had led to some questions about the health of consumers, but …
In contrast with other January inflation data this week, import prices came in slightly softer than expected. The headline measure rose 0.3% last month, but unlike most other inflation data these are not released as seasonally adjusted. On a year-ago basis, import prices grew 1.9% in January, down from an upwardly-revised 2.3% in December but …
While the January final goods producer price index (PPI) represented another upside surprise to consensus forecasts for inflation last month, it was more closely aligned with our own forecast for firming. More importantly, the key components that feed into our core PCE tracking model were uniformly soft (once seasonally adjusted to match the construction of …
We expect that initial jobless claims will have dropped down to 215k for the week ending February 8, from 219k in the previous week, as weather conditions improve from the recent weeks of frigid weather that swept across many states. While the series could soon face potential risks from recent headlines about the USAID shutdown, …
We expect that the final demand producer price index (PPI) rose 0.5% in January, with broadly firm increases across components of the index. Specifically, we look for another strong monthly gain in energy prices, having risen 2.2% last month as natural gas prices spiked while gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas also posted strong gains. Food …
We forecast a 0.30% monthly increase in the consumer price index (CPI) for January. This would be modestly softer than the December increase and would keep the year-ago inflation rate at 2.9%. While we expect some firming in food and energy prices, excluding food and energy core CPI prices should rise a more modest 0.23% …
The January consumer price index (CPI) surprised to the upside as the headline index rose 0.5% (0.467% to three decimals), nudging the year-ago inflation rate back to 3.0%.The surprise was largely in the core (ex. food and energy) index, which rose 0.4 (0.446% to three decimals) in January, also nudging up year-ago core CPI inflation, …
03/10/2025–Oil investors are predominantly holding long positions, anticipating potential gains despite current market challenges. Brent crude is trading about $7 below its fair value, with technical indicators suggesting oversold conditions, indicating a possible price rebound. The market sees a drop in Iranian supply as the only bullish catalyst for prices, which we do not anticipate. …