– Tariff war 2.0 to lower growth in Greater China – China: NPC focused on local government debt swap – Exports beat expectations with broad based gains, FX reserves fell by a larger than expected US$55.3bn – Taiwan: CPI inflation ticked lower to 1.7%oya, exports show stabilizing trend – Next week: China inflation, credit and …
When I meet with clients and spend all day discussing investments and the market, I often get new ideas for memos. Last month, I met with clients in Japan — and we talked about the big shift I think is happening with interest rates and the role of credit in portfolios. This led to a …
3Q productivity solid, if hints of slowing Non-farm business productivity in 3Q rose a less-than-expected 2.2% q/q saar, while unit labor costs (ULC) rose a somewhat stronger 1.9% q/q saar last quarter. These data tend to be quite volatile from quarter to quarter, and looking at year-ago growth rates can give a smoother picture of …
He’s not leaving The FOMC cut its target rate by 25bp today, as expected, taking the fed funds range down to 4.5-4.75%. Chair Powell’s press conference sounded a little dovish to us: he expressed confidence that inflation and inflationary drivers were well-behaved, saw further cooling in the labor market as unwelcome, and endorsed a plan …
The Evolution Payroll Seasonality In last week’s employment report September nonfarm payroll employment increased 254k (223k private), well above the trailing three-month average of 140k (103k private), which raised discussion on the seasonal adjustment. First, there have been questions whether the seasonal factor for September was unusually supportive compared to prior years, which we don’t …
Euro area: Making progress on disinflation – Recent slowing in core inflation is linked to services – Deflator down sharply; wage inflation should fade – We continue to expect core inflation to return to 2% Progress on Euro area disinflation is undeniable. Headline inflation is now below 2%oya having peaked at 10.6% two years ago. …
Solid August wage data point to sustained momentum in pay growth – Initial indications on 2025 Shunto negotiations likely to come in firm – Sentiment surveys holding up through 3Q – Next week: September underlying inflation remains firm Our forecast for a series of policy rate rises reflects a call that the BoJ will look …
Solid August wage data point to sustained momentum in pay growth Read More »
– Both Trump and Vance have voiced support for a weaker dollar policy – The president has legal avenues to attempt to depreciate the dollar, though only limited resources to do so – There are also doubts about the effectiveness of those avenues if monetary policy remains independent A recent Bloomberg Businessweek interview with Republican …
US: Dollar Dollar policy in a second Trump presidency Read More »
China’s 3-arrows of policy stimulus China launched a new round of policy easing in late September, and the comprehensive package beat market expectations. The positive surprise raised market expectations for further stimulus measures. Some investors compare the current policy shift with China’s 4-trillion stimulus packages in 2008-09, the ECB’s “whatever it takes” moment in 2012, …
