Euro area: Making progress on disinflation – Recent slowing in core inflation is linked to services – Deflator down sharply; wage inflation should fade – We continue to expect core inflation to return to 2% Progress on Euro area disinflation is undeniable. Headline inflation is now below 2%oya having peaked at 10.6% two years ago. …
Solid August wage data point to sustained momentum in pay growth – Initial indications on 2025 Shunto negotiations likely to come in firm – Sentiment surveys holding up through 3Q – Next week: September underlying inflation remains firm Our forecast for a series of policy rate rises reflects a call that the BoJ will look …
Solid August wage data point to sustained momentum in pay growth Read More »
– Both Trump and Vance have voiced support for a weaker dollar policy – The president has legal avenues to attempt to depreciate the dollar, though only limited resources to do so – There are also doubts about the effectiveness of those avenues if monetary policy remains independent A recent Bloomberg Businessweek interview with Republican …
US: Dollar Dollar policy in a second Trump presidency Read More »
China’s 3-arrows of policy stimulus China launched a new round of policy easing in late September, and the comprehensive package beat market expectations. The positive surprise raised market expectations for further stimulus measures. Some investors compare the current policy shift with China’s 4-trillion stimulus packages in 2008-09, the ECB’s “whatever it takes” moment in 2012, …
