Election Spending PCE

US elections are an expensive undertaking. Political parties, individual campaigns, and political action committees (PACs) raise and spend money during each election cycle. Presidential elections further increase the total expenditure every four years. An under appreciated fact is that all this spending is reflected in the aggregate consumption data. Indeed, the significant fluctuations in election …

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He’s Not Leaving

He’s not leaving The FOMC cut its target rate by 25bp today, as expected, taking the fed funds range down to 4.5-4.75%. Chair Powell’s press conference sounded a little dovish to us: he expressed confidence that inflation and inflationary drivers were well-behaved, saw further cooling in the labor market as unwelcome, and endorsed a plan …

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The Evolution Payroll Seasonality

The Evolution Payroll Seasonality In last week’s employment report September nonfarm payroll employment increased 254k (223k private), well above the trailing three-month average of 140k (103k private), which raised discussion on the seasonal adjustment. First, there have been questions whether the seasonal factor for September was unusually supportive compared to prior years, which we don’t …

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