The global impact of resurgent trade tensions The 2018 trade war underscored how damaging the interplay of higher tariffs and business uncertainty can be to global growth. A post-red-sweep roadmap The US election delivered a decisive victory for President Trump alongside a red sweep in the Congress. This creates the potential for significant changes in …
The United States March 10-15th The key uncertainty at the start of this week was whether tariffs would be implemented on Canada and Mexico, or delayed again until early April. Unfortunately by the end of the week outcomes were still uncertain: tariffs were first enacted and then removed for some goods, though with some confusion …
US elections are an expensive undertaking. Political parties, individual campaigns, and political action committees (PACs) raise and spend money during each election cycle. Presidential elections further increase the total expenditure every four years. An under appreciated fact is that all this spending is reflected in the aggregate consumption data. Indeed, the significant fluctuations in election …
While the broader trade war (10%-20% tariffs on all US imports) will likely be put on hold, tariffs on China are expected to ramp up quickly. The average effective tariff rate on Chinese goods in the 2018-19 trade war was lifted from 3% up to 20%. We now expect this to be expanded to 60% …
– Tariff war 2.0 to lower growth in Greater China – China: NPC focused on local government debt swap – Exports beat expectations with broad based gains, FX reserves fell by a larger than expected US$55.3bn – Taiwan: CPI inflation ticked lower to 1.7%oya, exports show stabilizing trend – Next week: China inflation, credit and …
When I meet with clients and spend all day discussing investments and the market, I often get new ideas for memos. Last month, I met with clients in Japan — and we talked about the big shift I think is happening with interest rates and the role of credit in portfolios. This led to a …
3Q productivity solid, if hints of slowing Non-farm business productivity in 3Q rose a less-than-expected 2.2% q/q saar, while unit labor costs (ULC) rose a somewhat stronger 1.9% q/q saar last quarter. These data tend to be quite volatile from quarter to quarter, and looking at year-ago growth rates can give a smoother picture of …
He’s not leaving The FOMC cut its target rate by 25bp today, as expected, taking the fed funds range down to 4.5-4.75%. Chair Powell’s press conference sounded a little dovish to us: he expressed confidence that inflation and inflationary drivers were well-behaved, saw further cooling in the labor market as unwelcome, and endorsed a plan …
The Evolution Payroll Seasonality In last week’s employment report September nonfarm payroll employment increased 254k (223k private), well above the trailing three-month average of 140k (103k private), which raised discussion on the seasonal adjustment. First, there have been questions whether the seasonal factor for September was unusually supportive compared to prior years, which we don’t …
Euro area: Making progress on disinflation – Recent slowing in core inflation is linked to services – Deflator down sharply; wage inflation should fade – We continue to expect core inflation to return to 2% Progress on Euro area disinflation is undeniable. Headline inflation is now below 2%oya having peaked at 10.6% two years ago. …
