04/10/2025—Because of the federal government shutdown, the Department of Labor isn’t releasing the standard jobless claims press release, although the bulk of state-level data continues to be made available on Thursday evenings. The table provided above represents our approximation of the national seasonally adjusted totals for the most recent week, drawn from the data that …
10/04/2025—We anticipate that the producer price index (PPI) for final demand increased by 0.2% in August, representing a considerably milder pace compared to the unexpected 0.9% uptick seen in July. This projection for a more restrained monthly advance partly stems from significantly reduced impacts from food and energy relative to the previous month. In particular, …
We forecast that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% (0.36% to higher precision) in August, which would be the firmest monthly rise since December. If realized, the over-year-ago pace of headline CPI inflation would increase to a seven-month high of 2.9%. We expect both food and energy CPI prices to lend some support to …
04/19/2026–even with tighter supply and shrinking stockpiles, physical oil prices have dropped significantly—from $144 to around $116—largely because demand is cratering. This is most obvious in Europe, where refineries are actually losing money on every barrel they process, forcing them to cut back production because they can’t pass high costs on to consumers. On the …
04/19/2026–In the currency markets, we are starting to bet against the US dollar again, returning to our long-term view that its value will eventually drop. However, because inflation remains high and energy prices are still volatile, we are being picky and focusing on trades that offer better interest rate returns. In emerging markets, we’ve shifted …
04/19/2026–the bond market is currently reacting to a mix of geopolitical shifts and steady economic data. In developed markets, short-term yields have dropped following hopeful news regarding US-Iran negotiations, though these rates are still catching up to the faster movements seen in energy prices. In the US, the labor market remains surprisingly strong and manufacturing …
The January employment report was a little messier than usual, but the underlying message appears to be that the labor market looks just fine. Nonfarm employment increased by 143,000 last month, a smidgeon below expectations but, big picture, reasonably close to the revised 166,000 average monthly gain seen in 2024. The unemployment rate slipped a …
Risks to the US outlook economic escalated materially over the weekend. President Trump’s executive orders threatening to increase tariff rates on imports from Canada (10% energy, 25% non-energy), China (10%), and Mexico (25%), are set to go into effect at 12:01 Tuesday morning. De minimis imports (under $800) would no longer be excluded from tariffs …
As widely expected, the Fed kept policy unchanged today with a 4.25 to 4.5% target rate. The decision was unanimous among the new set of voters for 2025. The guidance language was left unchanged as anticipated, and Chair Powell argued that both the economy and policy are in a good place now. With risks balanced …
The Employment Cost Index, matched our and consensus expectations with a 0.9% rise in the headline total compensation measure 4Q, or 3.6% at an annualized quarterly pace. This was slightly faster than the 0.8% q/q growth (3.2%ar) in 3Q24, but there has been a pronounced—if choppy—cooling in this measure since peaking at 5.5% in early …
Wages firm modestly in 4Q—ECI against cooling trend. Read More »
