On August 1, the US increased the reciprocal tariff on imports from Türkiye to 15%, up from 10%. Since March 2018, the US has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports from Türkiye,so that tariff is not new for the country, unlike the rest of the world. The US also announced a 25% …
Türkiye’s trade and US tariffs: Much ado about little Read More »
Last week the White House announced there will be a new $100,000 H1-B visa fee for the next 12 months. It will apply only to visas for new employment, in a speciality occupation, for a worker currently outside the US. It does not apply to H1-B renewals, which we interpret to include extensions at an …
Last week the CBO released new demographic forecasts, updating their January estimates to account for changes in immigration policy. The population forecast for 2025 was cut from 0.7% to 0.2%, entirely accounted for by lower net immigration, which now contributes 0.1%. There were also smaller reductions to future years. It was well understood that there …
The minutes to the September 16-17 FOMC meeting highlighted the Committee’s lingering inflation concerns, even as it voted to cut rates to better manage risks. In particular, the minutes note that “downside risks to employment had increased over the intermeeting period and that upside risks to inflation had either diminished or not increased.” While most …
Inflation worries linger at the Fed, even as it cuts rates Read More »
The federal government shut down on October 1. In past research we’ve noted that the economic effects of shutdowns tend to be minor. Most shutdowns are very short-lived, though recent episodes include a 17-day shutdown in Oct 2013 and a record 35-day shutdown in Dec 2018-Jan 2019. The 2013 shutdown is more comparable, as no …
The FOMC cut the funds rate today by 25bp to 4.0-4.25%. There was only one dovish dissent for a larger cut: 50bp from new governor Miran. Moreover, in the press conference Powell suggested 50bp wasn’t seriously entertained by the Committee. Unlike the last meeting, both Governors Bowman and Waller voted with the consensus this time. …
The administration announced new tariffs on April 2. Prior to this we estimate that the effective tariff rate—tariffs collected divided by goods imports—had already increased from 2.3% in 2024 to 10%. That is on a static basis, which assumes no changes in import composition. With the latest announcement that rate would climb to 23% when …
• The president’s recent comments about Fed Chair Powell raises risks of threats to Fed independence • Supreme Court precedent would appear to guarantee Powell’s job security • However, that precedent is currently being reviewed • If precedent is overturned and Fed independence is chipped away at, inflation and interest rates could move higher During the first Trump …
The president’s highly anticipated tariff announcement this afternoon delivered at the very hawkish end of the range of expected outcomes. Details are still hazy, but we understand that starting April 5 there will be a 10% minimum tariff on all good imports, and on April 9 tariffs will go up further on countries with which …
With the administration recently urging ICE to raise arrests to 3,000 per day we check in on the latest deportation trends and their implications for labor markets. While DHS has paused the publication of comprehensive monthly data, they are still reporting timely detention metrics, most easily available via the organization TRAC. These imply that arrest volumes in the interior of the …
